PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE: FROM AMBIGUOUS TO DECLARATORY

Abstract

There is a discernment amongst academia that nuclear doctrines and nuclear signalling at a general level are flags of indications to any adversaries. Pakistan has to adopt a declared doctrine of embracing First Use policy with some calculated ambiguity to enhance the deterrence against potential adversaries. The evolution of Pakistan’s policy making regarding nuclear weapons can be interpreted and elaborated by examining organizational theory. International standards always have an influential role for military planners and policy makers to formulate posture regarding nuclear weapons. Pakistan policymakers are rightly formulating the strategic posture base on the asymmetric escalation in its nuclear deterrence to deter threats emanating primarily from India. A detailed analysis shows that the emphasis by Pakistan on using its nuclear weapons first is to deter conventional attack and to establish deterrence rather than practically going for nuclear war. Pakistan has to officially declare a nuclear doctrine and at least has to the public the basic aspects of its nuclear policy every year in a “defence caveat.” The fundamental objective of the nuclear arsenal in Pakistan must be outlined as a protection to its sovereignty and “national interests” from an aggressor who is threatening the ‘very existence’ of Pakistan. Pakistan has to call its emerging nuclear doctrine as Full Spectrum Minimum Deterrence, the addition of the word minimum means that Pakistan will review its nuclear arsenal size accordingly to the emerging strategic environment. Pakistan’s policymakers have to understand the fact that nuclear weapons have no utility against economic and political threats. The doctrine should clearly manifest that the authorities in Pakistan will utilize whatever methods are important to secure its “National Interests,” be it conventional or nuclear. In a changing regional strategic scenario, Pakistan has the option to readapt accordingly to the emerging threats, because declaring a nuclear doctrine does not mean that Pakistan cannot readjust its policy.