PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME: SECURITY, POLITICS AND TECHNOLOGY

Abstract

The genesis of Pakistan’s nuclear programme can be traced to the establishment of the Physics Department in Government College, Lahore soon after independence in 1947. Pakistan initiated a modest nuclear programme to harness the peaceful uses of atomic energy, in the wake of the Atoms for Peace Programme in 1956. This led to the formation of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) and the initial focus was to develop a civilian base for a peaceful and research oriented nuclear programme. During this phase, the country’s nuclear programme was led by two Chairmen of PAEC, Dr. Nazir Ahmad (1956-1960) and Dr. I.H. Usmani (1960-1972). This era also saw fragmented nuclear decision-making amongst President Ayub Khan, his advisors in the civil bureaucracy and PAEC. These sixteen years were marked by the training of hundreds of scientists and engineers in various technical fields in Western nuclear establishments and Universities. During the 1960s, the United States and Canada helped Pakistan launch a modest nuclear power and research programme with the setting up of the Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor-1 (PARR-1), the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP), and the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH). However, Pakistan was unable to capitalize on the available options for acquiring nuclear fuel cycle facilities on easy terms that could have provided the country with a nuclear option, primarily due to opposition from within the civil bureaucracy. Thus, decision-making regarding the nuclear programme was adversely affected by bureaucratic politics during this time. Nonetheless, a growing threat perception following the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war and India’s increasing nuclear capabilities led to the formation of two parallel pro-bomb coalitions. One comprised Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Munir Ahmad Khan, while the other one consisted of young scientists and engineers in PAEC who wished to see Pakistan develop nuclear capability. While the 1971 Indo- Pakistan war led to the separation of East Pakistan, it led to Bhutto to power and to the convergence of the two separate pro-bomb coalitions. Dr. Usmani did not enjoy the support of the political leadership, and was opposed to making nuclear weapons. Therefore, he was replaced by Mr. Munir Ahmad Khan at the Multan Conference in January, 1972. His tenure would last for another nineteen years which would prove to be the most critical phase in Pakistan’s nuclear quest. Hence, PAEC was re-organized in 1972 and was placed directly under the Chief Executive’s Secretariat and was mandated to develop the nuclear option. A long-term comprehensive nuclear plan was approved and international cooperation solicited to develop the essential infrastructure. Even as the country’s nuclear programme was struggling to stand on its own feet owing to the loss of half of its trained manpower with the separation of East Pakistan, India carried out its first test of a nuclear device in May 1974. This had the twin effect of termination of all international cooperation as the Western supplier states began to cancel agreements for the supply of nuclear fuel cycle facilities unless Pakistan brought is entire nuclear programme under safeguards. It also adversely affected the country’s long-term nuclear power programme, which depended on importing nuclear power plants. When Pakistan failed to secure any international security guarantees from the big powers in the face India’s nuclear threat, it resolved to develop all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle and weapons capability on its own. In the face of sanctions, Pakistan was able to complete work on numerous projects, ranging from uranium exploration, processing, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication production reactors and a heavy water plant, and fuel reprocessing. Acutely aware of India’s progress in developing nuclear explosives, PAEC also began work on the establishing the infrastructure on the design, fabrication, manufacture and testing of nuclear weapons as early as March 1974. This work was carried out by the Directorate of Technical Development, which comprised different projects related to the theoretical design, trigger mechanism, machining and precision engineering of electronic and mechanical and other non-nuclear components of the nuclear device. In addition, diagnostic facilities for carrying out cold and hot tests, including the Chaghi and Kharan test sites were also developed. These fruits proved their worth when PAEC carried out the first cold test of a working nuclear device on March 11, 1983, which would be followed by two dozen more cold tests of improved weapon designs. At the same time, the nuclear fuel cycle projects also enabled Pakistan to produce indigenous nuclear fuel for KANUPP when Canada cut off supplies of fuel and spare parts. The country also succeeded in producing highly enriched uranium by the mid-1980s under the auspices of KRL. This project, originally launched by PAEC in 1974-75, was taken over by Dr. A.Q. Khan and separated from its parent organization within two years. Moreover, work on developing the infrastructure for the plutonium route had begun in earnest in 1973, which was completed by the early 1980s. However, as KANUPP was under safeguards, PAEC began work on a heavy water production plant and a 50 MWt plutonium production reactor and a tritium plant along with other nuclear infrastructure projects. These were completed within a decade, which has now enabled Pakistan to utilize the hitherto untapped capability to produce weapons-grade plutonium and tritium. The latter can also be used to develop thermonuclear weapons