Predators in Northern Pakistan

Abstract

Apex predators are usually associated with large body sizes, low densities, large home ranges, and wide distributions. They are frequently considered flagship species as conservation effOlis for them benefit entire communities. Apex predators playa crucial role in maintaining healthy, balanced ecosystems, though the magnitude of their effects as ecosystem regulators has been immensely underestimated. The widespread decline in nwnbers and distribution oflarge carnivores due to human persecution has led to a loss and reconfiguration of biological diversity in many ecosystems, highlighting the ecological effect of carnivores and the broad-scale consequences of their loss. Pakistan is home to 10 of 18 known mammalian orders which reflects significant diversity in the country. Unfortunately, the majority of large mammals in Pakistan are either threatened or endangered. Key large predators in northern Pakistan include the snow leopard, brown bear, grey wolf, and Himalayan lynx. I selected the snow leopard and brown bear as model predator species for this study because both are iconic species and represent distinct habitats and foraging while having overlapping ranges in Pakistan's high mountainous. The long-term survival of these majestic species in Pakistan is uncertain due to intensifying threats, e.g., growing human populations, expanding infrastructure, increasing livestock, increasing dependency on natural resources, poaching, and growing and unmanaged tourism. For snow leopards, direct killing by farmers is the single most significant threat. Climate change is another emerging threat and is intensifying ongoing challenges for the survival of thin predator populations in human-dominated landscapes. Such a situation requires targeted conservation efforts. However, there are critical knowledge gaps in the ecology of large predators in Pakistan. For example, their distributions are dated and based on anecdotes and limited understanding of habitat requirements- reliable population estimates are unavailable, and the nature and magnitude of their conflicts with people are not well known. The overall goal of this study was to fill these knowledge gaps for the informed conservation of apex predators in Pakistan. The study relied on empirical data collected through modern techniques like camera trapping and molecular genetics, in combination with advanced analytical methods, to construct species distributions and assess populations and human-carnivore interactions. I found that northern Pakistan still supports good habitats for large predators, including snow leopards and brown bears, though quality across the landscapes was not uniform. For snow leopards, a large portion of previously known range represented lowquality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab National Park (KNP), Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber National Park (QNP), Broghil National Park (BNP), and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contributions in the habitat model were precipitation during the driest month (34%) and annual mean temperature (19.5%). The connectivity analysis for snow leopards revealed that the population in the Hindu Kush landscape was more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population was better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the population in India. Similarly, for brown bears, a large portion of the historic range represented lowquality habitat, including areas in Swat, Lower Chitral, Neelum Valley, Naran-Kaghan, Khanbari, parts of Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), and the surrounding areas of Gilgit. On the other hand, Deosai National Park (DNP) and its surrounding areas, KNP, QNP, BNP, Musk Deer National Park (MDNP), Misgar, Chapursan, parts of Astore Valley, Yarkhun Valley, Laspur Valley, Phandar Valley, and Kharmang Valley represented highquality habitats. The connectivity model for brown bears showed that the population in the Hindukush range was isolated. The population in BNP and QNP was connected with the population in Afghanistan, while the KNP population was connected with China. In the Himalayas, the brown bear population had a weak connection with the population in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Inside Pakistan, the brown bear population in KNP, BNP, QNP, Misgar, and Chapursan were connected. The CKNP population was either isolated or weakly connected with KNP. The brown bear population in DNP and surrounding areas had a connection with that of MDNP. Two best-quality habitats for both species were selected to estimate populations. KNP and its surroundings constitute prime habitat for snow leopards. Nineteen unique snow leopard individuals were identified in this area from photographic data of 122 camera stations active for 1,243 trap-days. The spatial capture-mark-recapture (SCR) model estimated a total of 55 individuals with 29.05-104.27 (95% CI) across 5,764 krn2. The base encounter rate was 0.008, and the spatial scale of movement was calculated at 6.726 ± 1.23 krn. This yielded a density of 1 animal per 100 krn2 , with an upper confidence limit of 1.8 individualsllOO krn2, and lower confidence limit of 0.5 individuals/I 00 krn2 . . For brown bears, the population was estimated in DNP, an area known to be the main stronghold of the species, using double-observer visual counts in combination with capture-mark-recapture (CMR). Thirty bears were sighted in 19 sighting events, excluding double counts. The Huggins Closed Capture model estimated a capture probability (p) 0.48 ± O.llSE with 0.28-0.69 (95% CI), and recapture probability (c) 0.48 ± O.llSE with 0.29- 0.68 (95% CI). The averaged population size (N) was 44.64 ± 12.66SE with 19.84-69.45 (95% CI). During conflict surveys, 2,733 respondents reported 32,753 livestock (6,551 per year, with an average 2.39 per household, per year) losses to various carnivores and diseases, with a total economic loss ofPKR 38,423,996 (PKR 7,684,799 per year with an average PKR 2811.855 per household, per year). Among these losses, diseases contributed 80%. The majority (53 .80%) of losses related to small ruminants. Such a high level of property loss induced fear in local communities, influencing their tolerance towards large carnivores. Our analysis indicated that people were more tolerant of snow leopards in the north-eastern parts of the range. However, acceptance decreased in areas with frequent predator sightings. Depredation of livestock by snow leopards and the proportion of herding families in communities contributed significantly to negative attitudes towards predators. In conclusion, northern Pakistan supports high-quality habitats for large predators like snow leopards and brown bears. The populations of these predators are patchy, but a few high-quality habitats support higher densities. Both species maintain regional connectivity, which must be protected for the species' long-term survival. Connectivity among some populations within the country is weak, which could be improved through targeted conservation work on movement corridors identified in this study. Humanpredator conflicts pose a serious challenge to the future of these species. The co-existence of predators with human communities could be managed by addressing factors that determine human attitudes to carnivores, compensation for livestock predation, and education.