Distribution, Site Use and Impact of Climate Change on the Wild Ungulates of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Wild ungulates are crucial in maintaining proper functioning of many ecosystems because they aid in nutrient recycling and provide a food base for many carnivores. Pakistan is home to seven species and five subspecies of wild caprinae (sheep and goats). These 12 members of caprinae are distributed across the country. The Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) province is situated in the north of the Pakistan with an area of 72,791 km2 and is divided into ten administrative districts. The land area of GB is dominated by rugged mountains of the Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Karakoram-Pamirs. These mountain ranges are covered by world’s largest mass of glaciers outside the poles, and harbor five species of caprinae viz., Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica), Astor markhor (Capra falconeri falconeri), Ladakh urial (Ovis vignei vignei), Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) and Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus). Historically, these wild ungulates were rampantly poached, leading to population decline, local extirpation, and significant reduction in their geographical ranges. Conservation programs, law enforcement and trophy hunting programs helped recovery in populations of some of these species in selected parts of the range. In last two decades, GB has witnessed a remarkable development of infrastructure, particularly monumental expansion in network of roads which though benefited inhabitants but led to increased access to remote habitats, habitat fragmentation, and habitat degradation due to encroachment, deforestation. The tourism traffic and land use changes increase every year. This further aggravates the situation, as mountainous habitats are the most vulnerable ecosystems in the world due to climate change. All wild ungulates species are threatened in Pakistan, and intensifying threats make their future uncertain. Trophy hunting programs are effective, yet not adequate to secure range wide populations of these iconic species. These species carry global conservation significance and are vital for local economies. For example, revenue from trophy hunting program is estimated at 500,000 US$ per annum in GB. Loss of these invaluable creatures means jeopardizing integrity of delicate mountain ecosystems. Thus, a long-term DRSML QAU Distribution, Site Use and Impact of Climate Change on the Wild Ungulates of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan 2 conservation strategy is required to safeguard future of wild ungulates, which is based on species ecology, existing and emerging threats, and response of these species to climate change. The Correct understanding of species distribution and habitat preferences is fundamental prerequisite for an effective conservation planning. Despite high biological and economic significance of wild ungulates in GB, they remained poorly studied. Particularly knowledge on their distribution and habitat requirements is dated and largely anecdotal. This risks spatial conservation efforts for wild ungulates in the province. This study was designed to fill this critical information gap. Focusing on four key ungulates of GB: Himalayan ibex, blue sheep, Marco Polo sheep, and Kashmir musk deer, this study aimed to validate the current distributions of mountain ungulates in GB with empirical data, predict range shifts under climate change, and provide recommendations for landscape level management of wild ungulates in Pakistan. Gilgit-Baltistan province was surveyed with multiple methods (Questionnaire, sign surveys, visual counts, and camera trapping) to record occurrence of target species. I developed predictive models for mountain ungulates distribution using presence locations and environmental covariates. Possible shifts in ranges were also investigated under various climate change scenarios predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Himalayan ibex was the widely distributed wild ungulate in GB with an estimated suitable habitat of 26,500 km2 (37.71% of the province) followed by Kashmir musk deer with 9,115.52 km2 (12.52%), blue sheep with 6,500 km2 (9.26%), and Marco Polo argali 78.3 km2 . Habitat for Himalayan ibex was spread across all mountain ranges, though contagious patches existed only in Karakoram-Pamir range. Main stronghold for the Kashmir musk deer occurred mostly in the Himalayan range and limited part of the Hindu Kush. Blue sheep was also in Karakoram-Pamir range, Marco Polo sheep existed only in Pamir range. Himalayan ibex, Kashmir musk deer, and blue sheep were still occupying a large part of their historical range, while Marco Polo sheep’s range was reduced and was only confined to Karachanai Nullah of Khunjerab National Park. Similarly major portion of current DRSML QAU Distribution, Site Use and Impact of Climate Change on the Wild Ungulates of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan 3 surviving population of Kashmir musk deer existed in Astor and Diamer districts. Habitat selection of mountain ungulates was significantly influenced by climatic and terrain features, and each species exhibited specific niche in terms of habitat covariates. Mountain ungulates also adjusted site use in presence of predator. Himalayan ibex was most impacted species by climate change as it will lose most of its current range (56% and 58%), the blue sheep which will also lose 33.70% to 64.80% under moderate to severe representative concentration pathways (RCPs). If IPCC’s climate change prediction holds, Himalayas and Hindu Kush will become unsuitable for the Himalayan ibex, and its suitable habitat will be concentrated in the Karakoram range. Contrary to ibex, blue sheep will extend its range towards Baltoro glacier in Baltistan. In conclusion, Karakoram-Pamir will serve as climate refugia for ibex and blue sheep, and Himalaya is expected same for the musk deer. The results of this study are relevant for protected areas planning and management in the province. The Karakoram-Pamir Mountain ranges carry high significance for long-term survival of several ungulates. Luckily a substantial part of these ranges is already protected under national parks regulations. To strengthen their effectiveness, we recommend improvement in management of these parks, improving connectivity among them and with protected areas in neighboring China. Unfortunately, good quality habitats (dense/Birch Forest) of musk deer are out of existing protected area network of the province, that risks survival and recovery of this species. We recommend creation of new national parks in the Himalayan range, particularly in Astor and Diamer districts to safeguard high quality musk deer habitat from further deterioration