An Empirical Analysis of Selected Food Commodity Prices across Political Regimes

Abstract

The current study compares the prices of selected food items among three regimes PPP, PML-N and PTI. Regimes Comparison examined through graphs and regression analysis. We have taken the prices of selected food items data monthly from Pakistan bureau of statistics, Pakistan economic survey and Index Mundi. The data varies from July 2008 to October 2021. We have selected 13 food items for the purpose of comparisons. The food items included Wheat, Rice Basmati Sup, Rice Basmati, Rise Basmati Broken, Rice Sindh / Panjab, Vegetable Ghee Tin, Vegetable Ghee Loos, Pulse Masoor Whole, Pulse Masoor Washed, Pulse Mong Washed, Pulse Mash Washed, Pulse Gram and Sugar Refined. For regression, we have taken the dependent variable as the absolute average prices of selected food items while independent variables have nominal diesel price and nominal interest rate with three dummy variables. PPP regime, PML-N regime and PTI regime. We have used ARDL Model based on OLS techniques for regression analysis in the short and long run. Graphs and dummies variables found the results about absolute price rising of selected food items among three regimes; the absolute average price is rising in the current regime compared the previous two regimes. However, the real prices of selected food items have more in the PPP regime as compared to the two regimes