Analyzing the Impact of Shifting Private Vehicles to Public Transport on Oil Consumption. A Study of Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract

The present study investigates the impact of shifting private vehicles to public transport on oil consumption and CO2 emissions. The study uses one week of peak hours private vehicle flow data from fifteen intracity locations in Islamabad and provides eleven shifting scenarios of the private vehicles to public transport. The study collects average passenger per private vehicle, public transport seating capacity, average travel kilometers, average oil consumption, average fuel price, and CO2 emitted per liter of oil consumption data of private vehicles and public transport through primary and secondary data. The study employs novel techniques and methodologies that have not been previously used in the transport sector, particularly in the context of Pakistan. This study utilizes the SPSS software to analyze data through descriptive statistics, an independent samples t-test, and a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Additionally, the study employs formulas and bar charts in Microsoft Excel to calculate impacts and represent the results pictorially. The results provide descriptions of the data, pre-shifting impacts, and post-shifting analysis. The findings reveal that shifting all private vehicles to public transport decreases oil consumption by 87.6%, CO2 emissions by 86.4%, the number of vehicles by 95.7%, and fuel costs by 88.1%. The study also suggests and analyzes various shifting scenarios and demonstrates the corresponding reductions in vehicles, oil consumption, fuel costs, and CO2 emissions. The findings suggest that shifting a significant portion of private vehicles to public transport can have substantial positive impacts on oil consumption and CO2 emissions. Finally, the study proposed that officials can test the effectiveness of presented scenarios in a specific location before implementing them city-wide or countrywide. Keywords: Private vehicles, public transport, oil consumption, CO2 emissions, shifting.