Climate Change Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Snow Leopard Habitat in Pakistan

Abstract

The earth's ecosystems are being affected by global climate change, with northern latitudes and terrestrial regions warming more than oceans. Pakistan ranks 8th among nations highly susceptible to water scarcity, desertification, rapid melting of glaciers, severe weather conditions, and the spread of afflictions. The Himalayas are expected to experience an increase in average temperature and rainfall, which will affect the growth of plants and shift their distribution up the mountains. This shift of trees will reduce the habitat of the snow leopard, a vulnerable species, by 30%. The snow leopard has been the focus of research since the 1970s, but only a small portion of its habitat has been studied for its ecology and conflicts with humans. Previous research on conservation has overlooked the human dimension, particularly in regions where local populations depend on livestock herding. This disregard for the human aspect is quite apparent. To devise a successful plan for preserving snow leopards and their habitats that serve multiple purposes in Pakistan and the wider Himalayan region, more research is required to fill the knowledge gaps regarding the protection of both the livelihoods of local communities and the snow leopards. To achieve the above-mentioned research gaps, four study objectives were established: (i) evaluating the climate change impacts on snow leopard habitat, under current and climate change scenarios (ii) monetary valuation of ecosystem services in snow leopard habitat in Pakistan; (iii) understanding perceptions of climate change and exploring the perspectives of mountain communities concerning adaptation strategies, and (iv) recommending conservation measures to preserve the habitat and maintain the livelihoods of local communities while ensuring the survival of the snow leopard under changing climatic conditions. The work focused primarily on the population of snow leopards in Pakistan; however, it also incorporated a wider area of the greater Himalayan region to understand better the potential shifts in habitat caused by climate change. Data for the predictive modelling of snow leopard habitat were obtained through advanced techniques such as camera trapping and molecular genetics and analyzed using cutting-edge methods, ABSTRACT xx Climate Change Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Snow Leopard Habitat in Pakistan including the Kuenm approach. The ecosystem services data were collected in June 2017 and November 2018 and analyzed using the PRA method, the Total Economic Valuation framework, and the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services approach. Data for the climate change perceptions, impacts, and adaptation strategies of the indigenous communities of Chitral Valley were collected in November 2018 using the PRA approach and analyzed using content analysis, counting, and frequency distributions. Temperature (1973 - 2022) and rainfall data (1993 - 2022) for the Chitral Valley were obtained from the Department of Meteorology, Government of Pakistan, and were examined graphically. The predictive modelling was run in two geographical areas: Pakistan, India, and Nepal, and another that included these countries along with China (which had no snow leopard occurrence data). This aimed to understand the potential shifts in snow leopard habitat suitability and distribution under different emission scenarios. Results indicate that by 2070, the snow leopard habitat in the greater Himalayan region may shrink by 16.9% to 23% under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 individually, with the extremely suitable habitat declining from 37% to 31.2% between present and future conditions. The annual mean temperature (bio1) remains the key determinant of the snow leopard's habitat suitability. The habitat may also shrink by 10% to 13% by 2070 in the area, including China. Our study shows that Panthera uncia habitat is greatly susceptible to climate change, and the loss of 17 - 23% of these habitats could have devastating consequences for the species. To counter these effects, it's essential to concentrate on safeguarding climate sanctuaries and constructing pathways for species conservation. Moreover, addressing ongoing threats such as illegal hunting and conflicts between humans and wildlife is necessary. Through the ecosystem services valuation assessment, the high dependence of the local communities on the natural resources in the Western Himalayan and Hindukush ranges of Pakistan was identified. The studies found that the ecosystem services were worth 6730 ± 520 USD per household per year in the Gurez Valley and 7272 ± 481.6 USD per household per year in the Chitral Valley, respectively. These values were 3.1 and 3.7 times greater than a household's typical earnings in the subject valleys, emphasizing the ABSTRACT xxi Climate Change Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Snow Leopard Habitat in Pakistan significance of these services to the well-being of local communities. The ecosystem service with the utmost value was livestock forage, worth 4105 ± 306 USD per household per year in the Gurez Valley and 2219 ± 83 USD per household per year in the Chitral Valley. The mountain communities were keenly aware of the impacts associated with climate change, such as shifts in temperature, precipitation, snowfall, glacier melt, flooding, and drought events, as well as pest attacks. These public perceptions are supported by meteorological records, which indicate a rise in temperature and a reduction in precipitation, with an average increase of 0.32ºC per decade between 1973 and 2022. These changes have adversely affected crop yields, livestock rearing, water resources, pastureland productivity, and human health. Locals have noted that human-wildlife conflict has significantly impacted biodiversity in the Chitral Valley. To adapt to these changes, communities have implemented various measures, including water management, cultivating different crop varieties, infrastructure development, institutional support, migration, livelihood diversification, and using clean energy alternatives. These results offer critical data for creating successful conservation plans in response to the problems posed by climate change and sustaining mountain communities' livelihoods. The mountain regions in Pakistan are hugely susceptible to the effects of climatic change, including human activities, making it a pressing priority to implement climate adaptation and mitigation measures. Involving local communities and incorporating traditional wisdom into conservation plans can be vital in ensuring sustainable management. A market-driven system like payment of ecosystem services and certification schemes, including biodiversity offset programs, can encourage better management practices and aid in preserving the cultural, economic, and ecological prosperity of mountain communities in Pakistan. Moreover, the government has the potential to assist in making livelihood resources easily reachable, enabling access to markets, disseminating knowledge and information, and enhancing the capacity of local communities to adjust to and change in response to climate disturbances and environmental threats.