RUSSIAN INTERVENTION IN SYRIAN CONFLICT: IMPLICATIONS FOR US FOREIGN POLICY

Abstract

Sometimes, a conflict becomes more complex and complicated due to its patterns, developing nature, dynamics, and direct or indirect involvement of players with diverging objectives. The Syrian conflict is complicated because it is multilayered and an internationally militarized conflict due to the involvement of local, regional, and global players. This thesis analyses the Russian participation in the Syrian conflict and its implications for US foreign policy during the Obama administration from 2014 to 2017. The research methodology includes conducting a case study in Syria and utilizing mathematical modeling with algorithms created in Python. The data was analyzed using MATLAB, and all the findings and dissertation were documented using LaTeX. The focus is on the impact of Russian intervention on US foreign policy decisions under the Obama administration, with the military intervention itself being considered the independent variable. Quantitative research is conducted using a game theoretic model to evaluate the conflict at two levels. At the local level, the conflict in Syria involves various players, including the Assad regime, and Syrian opposition groups such as Kurdish Forces, Syrian National Coalition, Al Nusra Front, ISIS, the Free Syrian Army, and the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Reforms. At the global level, major players such as the US and Russia are involved, along with regional players like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and Hezbollah. The findings of the thesis highlight that the delay in response and miscalculations made by US foreign policymakers created an opportunity for Russia to assert itself as a global power in the political and security landscape of the Middle East, particularly in Syria. This research contributes to the understanding of the strategic dynamics in the Syrian conflict and sheds light on the broader implications for US foreign policy in the region