An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Smoking Behavior in Pakistan

Abstract

To control cigarette smoking, Pakistan, like many other countries, has initiated crucial anti-smoking regulations since the promulgation of Health Warning Ordinance No LXXIV 2002. However, empirical evaluation of such regulations is missing in research. Therefore, this study examines the effects of policy variables (taxation and regulation) on the demand for cigarettes. However, focus of the study is to find influence of non-price preventive measures on cigarette demand. Therefore, this study also investigates whether social, psychological and religious factors influence an individual’s decision of smoking initiation and cessation. This thesis consists of three essays on smoking behavior. The first essay, uses time series data (1981 to 2018) and examines whether taxation and regulation (on smoking), real per capita income and education enrollment reduce smoking or not. The study finds that preventive regulations significantly discourage smoking. Second, cigarette price elasticity is less than unity showing that cigarette demand is in-elastic. Increasing cigarette prices by 10 percent, declines cigarette demand by about 5% and 7% in the short and long-run, respectively. Moreover, individual’s real per capita income is found negatively associated with cigarette consumption, which attests the wealthy individuals’ avoidance of smoking. Finally, the study finds positive association of cigarette demand with educational enrollment revealing the failure of educational institutions for effectively dissemination anti-smoking awareness. For further validating the results, the study conducts cross-sectional analyses to highlight the central factors linked with smoking initiation, and cessation. For smoking initiation, the study randomly collects data from 638 BS students at public sector universities across the country. With the help of binary regression method, the study discovers the impact of demographic characteristics (like age and ethnicity) on smoking onset decision. However, one’s residential area is unrelated with smoking initiation. Peer and parental smoking also entice individuals to smoking. In addition, physically and emotionally abused children more likely fall a prey to smoking. Next, religious individuals are found less likely attracted to smoking. Lastly, anti-smoking awareness play an essential role in discouraging smoking trends. Finally, for cessation analysis, the study randomly collects data from 421 respondents in the capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad. The findings demonstrate: commitment, socioeconomic status, absentia of smoking peers, low nicotine dependency, and previous quitting attempts appear VIII strong elements in smoking cessation for a period of almost six months. Besides, social pressure, religious and public preventive elements push individuals to quitting attempts. The study concludes taxation and public regulation significantly discourage cigarette consumption. However, socio-religious and psychological factors appear instrumental elements in discouraging smoking initiation among adolescents, and encourage quitting among adult smokers