Determinants of Consanguinity and Fertility in Muzaffargarh District

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to determine the relationship of consanguinity, inbreeding coefficient (IC-F) and exchange marriages (watta-satta) with socio- demographic variables in the population of Muzaffargarh, Southern Punjab. The study area lies between river Chenab and river Indus and is still backward in basic facilities of health and education. I hypothesized that rate of consanguineous unions (CU) is not changing over the years, and exchange (watta-satta) marriages are strongly associated with CU in the Muzaffargarh. In a prospective epidemiological study design, a total of 1629 male subjects were recruited. The prevalence of CU was observed to be 63% and inbreeding coefficient (IC-F) was calculated to be 0.038. First cousin unions were more prevalent (53%). Logistic regression analyses revealed that seven parameters tehsil (Muzaffargarh, Ali Pur and Jatoi), mother-tongue (Saraiki), literate status, early age at marriage, family type (extended), paternal and mixed household systems, and matrimonial distance (up to 250 km), were the significant predictors of consanguinity. Exchange marriages were quite high and constituted 32% of the total marriages. The multivariate analysis revealed seven variables Jatoi tehsil, rural origin, Saraiki mother-tongue, subject’s age up to 49 years, age at marriage up to 29 years, illiterate status and occupation, as significantly associated variables with exchange marriages. Interestingly, except tehsil and mother-tongue, all variables were not associated with CU. The simultaneous occurrence of CU and exchange marriages was observed to be 21% of the subjects. Further, CU and exchange marriages unions were declining over the years, likely due to the steady increase of mean age at marriage, improved literacy and economic developments. Furthermore, analyses also showed that fertility (total pregnancies per live births) was associated with subjects age, literacy, marriage arrangement, household type, exchange marriages and family type. Child mortality was observed to be associated with subjects age and family type. There was a temporal decline of fertility and mortality. This study conclusively revealed that CU, exchange marriages, fertility, and mortality had different underlying socio- demographic and cultural constraints. Further, the rates of CU, exchange marriages, fertility and mortality were temporally declining in Muzaffargarh population.